It doesn’t matter if you win or lose, but by how much...

At the end of Matchday 25, Bayern Munich found themselves at the top of the Bundesliga standings for the first time since Matchday 7. They were tied on points with Borussia Dortmund, each of whom had 57 points. The difference between first and second was a mere two goals. Bayern had a +35-goal differential [goals scored vs. goals surrendered], while Dortmund’s goal differential was +33. If the standings remain like this through the end of the Bundesliga, Bayern will win on goal differential. However, if both teams are tied on points and also on goal differential, the next tie-breaker is the total number of goals scored during the season. As much as I dislike running up the score in sports, the way the Bundesliga standings are decided actually encourage the strong teams to run it up on weaker opponents as much as possible. If either Bayern or Dortmund are given the opportunity to stand on an opponent’s neck, they’ll do it and won’t feel bad about it in the least. At this point, it doesn’t matter if you win or lose, but by how much.

Yesterday I watched Dortmund play Hertha Berlin. It was one of the best games I’ve seen this season. It was a back-and-forth affair that wasn’t decided until the final minute of stoppage time. Berlin scored first at 4 minutes. Hertha midfielder Salomon Kalou tapped home a blocked shot from defender Maximilian Mittelstädt that Dortmund keeper Roman Bürki couldn’t clear. Ten minutes later Dortmund midfielder Thomas Delaney tied the score with a deflection off Hertha defender Karim Rekik that went past keeper Rune Jarstein. Kalou regained the lead for Hertha at 35 minutes with a penalty shot [handball in the box on Christian Pulisic]. The score remained 2-1 at halftime. Two minutes after play resumed Dortmund evened the score as Dortmund defender Dan-Axel Zagadou made a Jadon Sancho corner. The score remained 2-2 for most of the remainder of the game. Things took a turn against Hertha when defender Jordan Torunarigha received his second yellow card of the match [and the red card to go with it] and was sent off with only five minutes remaining in regulation. Could Hertha hang on for a draw while playing a man down against Dortmund? Dortmund captain Marco Reus provided the answer three minutes into stoppage time by scoring the winning goal. It was a thrilling finish and a heartbreaking loss for Hertha. Since the Matchday 24 loss to Augsburg, Dortmund have now won two in a row to keep pace with Bayern.

There’s not much to write about today’s match between Bayern Munich and FSV Mainz. I always feel sorry for the team that has to play Bayern the match after a Bayern loss. Today’s match was no different. Bayern demolished Mainz 6-0. Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski padded his Bundesliga goal lead [18] at just three minutes into the game, and Bayern didn’t look back. Midfielder James Rodriguez scored his first hat trick since coming to Bayern on a two-year loan from Real Madrid [I hope Bayern makes the loan permanent]. Kingsley Coman scored once, and rookie Alphonso Davies scored his first Bundesliga goal. He is the youngest Bayern player to score his first goal in twenty years, and is the first Bayern player born in the 2000s to score in the Bundesliga.

This year there is little room for error. Dortmund led the Bundesliga by as much as nine points, but they have seen their lead disappear with a slump after the winter break. Meanwhile, Bayern have scored 17 goals in their last three games while surrendering only one in the same period [defeating Borussia Monchengladbach 5-1, Wolfsburg 6-0, and Mainz 6-0]. Dortmund are out of the DFB-Pokal tournament [courtesy of Werder Bremen], and they are out of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) [courtesy of Tottenham]. Bayern are still in the DFB-Pokal, but Liverpool knocked them out of the UCL a few days ago – it wasn’t even close.

Dortmund and Bayern are still even on points with 60 each, but Bayern have increased their goal differential lead to seven. The two teams meet on April 6th. Dortmund won the first match in Dortmund 3-2. The return match is in Munich’s Allianz Arena. I have the date circled on my calendar. Dortmund captain Marco Reus put it best:

"The title race will stay tight until the end".