It doesn’t matter if you win or lose, but by how much...

At the end of Matchday 25, Bayern Munich found themselves at the top of the Bundesliga standings for the first time since Matchday 7. They were tied on points with Borussia Dortmund, each of whom had 57 points. The difference between first and second was a mere two goals. Bayern had a +35-goal differential [goals scored vs. goals surrendered], while Dortmund’s goal differential was +33. If the standings remain like this through the end of the Bundesliga, Bayern will win on goal differential. However, if both teams are tied on points and also on goal differential, the next tie-breaker is the total number of goals scored during the season. As much as I dislike running up the score in sports, the way the Bundesliga standings are decided actually encourage the strong teams to run it up on weaker opponents as much as possible. If either Bayern or Dortmund are given the opportunity to stand on an opponent’s neck, they’ll do it and won’t feel bad about it in the least. At this point, it doesn’t matter if you win or lose, but by how much.

Yesterday I watched Dortmund play Hertha Berlin. It was one of the best games I’ve seen this season. It was a back-and-forth affair that wasn’t decided until the final minute of stoppage time. Berlin scored first at 4 minutes. Hertha midfielder Salomon Kalou tapped home a blocked shot from defender Maximilian Mittelstädt that Dortmund keeper Roman Bürki couldn’t clear. Ten minutes later Dortmund midfielder Thomas Delaney tied the score with a deflection off Hertha defender Karim Rekik that went past keeper Rune Jarstein. Kalou regained the lead for Hertha at 35 minutes with a penalty shot [handball in the box on Christian Pulisic]. The score remained 2-1 at halftime. Two minutes after play resumed Dortmund evened the score as Dortmund defender Dan-Axel Zagadou made a Jadon Sancho corner. The score remained 2-2 for most of the remainder of the game. Things took a turn against Hertha when defender Jordan Torunarigha received his second yellow card of the match [and the red card to go with it] and was sent off with only five minutes remaining in regulation. Could Hertha hang on for a draw while playing a man down against Dortmund? Dortmund captain Marco Reus provided the answer three minutes into stoppage time by scoring the winning goal. It was a thrilling finish and a heartbreaking loss for Hertha. Since the Matchday 24 loss to Augsburg, Dortmund have now won two in a row to keep pace with Bayern.

There’s not much to write about today’s match between Bayern Munich and FSV Mainz. I always feel sorry for the team that has to play Bayern the match after a Bayern loss. Today’s match was no different. Bayern demolished Mainz 6-0. Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski padded his Bundesliga goal lead [18] at just three minutes into the game, and Bayern didn’t look back. Midfielder James Rodriguez scored his first hat trick since coming to Bayern on a two-year loan from Real Madrid [I hope Bayern makes the loan permanent]. Kingsley Coman scored once, and rookie Alphonso Davies scored his first Bundesliga goal. He is the youngest Bayern player to score his first goal in twenty years, and is the first Bayern player born in the 2000s to score in the Bundesliga.

This year there is little room for error. Dortmund led the Bundesliga by as much as nine points, but they have seen their lead disappear with a slump after the winter break. Meanwhile, Bayern have scored 17 goals in their last three games while surrendering only one in the same period [defeating Borussia Monchengladbach 5-1, Wolfsburg 6-0, and Mainz 6-0]. Dortmund are out of the DFB-Pokal tournament [courtesy of Werder Bremen], and they are out of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) [courtesy of Tottenham]. Bayern are still in the DFB-Pokal, but Liverpool knocked them out of the UCL a few days ago – it wasn’t even close.

Dortmund and Bayern are still even on points with 60 each, but Bayern have increased their goal differential lead to seven. The two teams meet on April 6th. Dortmund won the first match in Dortmund 3-2. The return match is in Munich’s Allianz Arena. I have the date circled on my calendar. Dortmund captain Marco Reus put it best:

"The title race will stay tight until the end".

Bayern Munich Pummel Borussia Mönchengladbach

Leave it to Bayern Munich and Borussia Mönchengladbach [BMG] to make a liar out of me. I thought today’s Matchday 24 meeting at Borussia Park would be a hard-fought, very close game. Yesterday I said BMG was a tough opponent, maybe because they beat Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena 3-0 on Matchday 7. Maybe it was because they sat behind Bayern in third place. And maybe because traditionally BMG play Bayern very tough. I also said Bayern would have to win 7-0 to take over first place, and I opined that I didn’t see that happening. It’s a good thing I’m good at what I do in my day job because I suck as a prognosticator. Bayern Munich pummeled BMG today 5-1. They trail Borussia Dortmund by the slimmest of margins for first place in the Bundesliga. Both have 54 points, but Dortmund has a better goal differential [31 vs 29 for Bayern]. We have ourselves a title fight for once.

BMG’s defense came unglued today because Bayern were relentless on the attack from the opening whistle. With only one minute gone, Thomas Müller made a pass to Robert Lewandowski right in front of BMG’s goal. BMG keeper Yann Sommer deflected the shot wide, resulting in a Bayern corner kick. James Rodriguez took the kick, which Javi Martinez headed it in at the near corner. Bayern had the lead at two minutes. Nine minutes later Bayern struck again. Thomas Müller took a pass from Serge Gnabry. Both Müller and Lewandowski were running toward the goal. Müller connected, Sommer blocked it, but Müller followed through on the rebound and put it away. Bayern were up 2-0. BMG were a bit shell-shocked.

BMG halved Bayern’s lead at 38 minutes. After some fine passing on their left flank, BMG scored on a break when Thorgan Hazard beat Niklas Süle, passed the ball right between Süle’s legs to assist Lars Stindl. Bayern led 2-1, but it could have been much worse. Yann Sommer put in an outstanding performance before his defenders utterly collapsed around him. BMG’s defense didn’t have a clue today because Bayern were ruthless on the counterattack. BMG’s defenders were back on their heels the entire first half. They seemed totally unprepared for Bayern’s pace and aggressiveness.

Two minutes after halftime, Bayern struck again. BMG made yet another poor pass on defense, which Thiago intercepted. He delivered a nice, short forward pass to Lewandowski. He collected the ball, split two BMG defenders and put the ball past Sommer. Sommer had no chance of stopping this one, which was Lewandowski’s fourth shot on goal. Bayern led 3-1. The game was still in doubt as BMG gathered themselves and began to maintain possession equal with Bayern for the next 28 minutes. But at the 75th minute, disaster struck BMG. Bayern caught BMG unprepared yet again. Joshua Kimmich found Lewandowski with a perfect cross, but Lewandowski’s header flew straight into Sommer’s chest. Lewandowski couldn’t come up with the rebound cleanly, but neither could Sommer. BMG defender Nico Elvedi tried to clear the ball, but instead he sent the ball straight to a waiting Serge Gnabry. Gnabry buried it – Bayern lead 4-1. The game was effectively over at this point. Bayern coach Niko Kovacs started to substitute on younger players to give them some playing time.

As they say in the infomercials, “but wait, there’s more”. The game reached the 90-minute mark when Thorgan Hazard brought down Joshua Kimmich in the penalty area. On replay it looked like Kimmich slipped, but the referee awarded the penalty. Robert Lewandowski took the penalty and he didn’t miss. His second goal of the game ties him with Claudio Pizarro as the highest-scoring non-German in Bundesliga history. Game over – Bayern win 5-1.

Augsburg Stun Dortmund

On paper, this would be a blowout. Borussia Dortmund ended their five-game winless streak last week against a very good Bayer Leverkusen team, 3-2. On the other side, FC Augsburg got hammered by SC Frieberg, 5-1. At kickoff, Borussia Dortmund stood at the top of the Bundesliga standings with 54 points, 3 points clear of second-place Bayern Munich. FC Augsburg stood fourth from the bottom at 18 points. They were only two points clear of Stuttgart, who currently are locked into the relegation playoff spot. Dortmund captain Marco Reus returned from his injury. One would think this would be an easy game for Dortmund. That turned out not to be the case.

In the first minute, it looked like this game would go as expected when an early defensive lapse almost resulted in a Dortmund goal. Luckily for Augsburg Dortmund couldn’t capitalize. Dortmund continued to press Augsburg’s defense. At 16:28 Augsburg had to make a defensive change due to defender Kostas Stafylidis getting injured [Austrian defender Georg Teigl came on in his place]. Augsburg’s defense settled down after the first 20 minutes and began to play fairly well.

South Korean striker Dong-won Ji [subbing for the injured Alfreð Finnbogason (calf)] opened the scoring for Augsburg at 23:45. Dortmund defender Dan-Axel Zagadou made a critical error, allowing Augsburg midfielder André Hahn to get around him to make a cross to Ji, who was positioned in front of Dortmund’s goal. The score remained 1-0 in favor of Augsburg at the half. Dortmund controlled possession of the ball 65 percent of the time, but could not score. Augsburg keeper Gregor Kobel was very busy in the first half, but he and Augsburg’s defense held Dortmund scoreless. Dortmund kept pressing but couldn’t break through.

Playing conditions were not ideal. It was 46F at kickoff. It started to rain, and the rain got steadily worse in the second half. At 65 minutes, Dortmund substituted defender Raphael Guerreiro for Marco Reus, and they also brought on striker Paco Alcácer for midfielder Thomas Delaney. Shortly thereafter, Dong-won Ji scored his second goal against Dan-Axel Zagadou at 68 after another Dortmund defensive miscue [Achraf Hakimi]. Zagadou was not having a good game. Augsburg were up 2-0. It was Ji’s first brace in six years. The field was wet and slippery, which made Dortmund’s task of catching Augsburg that much harder.

At 75 minutes Paco Alcácer [all he does is score goals] made a shot on goal that was denied by a brilliant save from Gregor Kobel. Alcácer had begun to celebrate when he realized he was denied by Kobel. It was the second brilliant save Kobel would make today. Alcácer’s celebration would have to wait. Alcácer didn’t have to wait long as he did score at the 81st minute. His goal cut Augsburg’s lead in half, making the game 2-1. Things got a bit chippy between André Hahn and Raphael Guerreiro, both of whom received yellow cards for their trouble. Dortmund made a ferocious charge to try to rescue a point in the standings, but Augsburg were too tough and too inspired for them today. After four minutes of stoppage time, Augsburg upset Dortmund, 2-1. Augsburg earned their first win at home against Dortmund ever.

Dortmund’s grip on first place is tenuous at best. At one time they were nine points clear of their nearest competitor. But now defending champion Bayern Munich are breathing down their necks, and Dortmund is starting to feel it. Bayern Munich will have to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 7-0 to take over first place. I don’t see that happening since BMG beat Bayern in the fall at the Allianz Arena. BMG are tough this year.